Getting started with the scenarios

What would happen if newspapers and magazines became irrelevant because news stories were sold as individual units? What about a scenario where media companies were swept aside by internet giants? What if there were no sustainable business models to ensure quality news could be delivered? What if there were no more jobs for journalists?

What is clear when looking at these four scenarios is that those organisations that do not attempt to answer these questions may no longer exist in 2025. According to research, people often overestimate how much they know. Experts also estimate the accuracy of predictions to be too high. Moreover, uncertainty is often seen as something that must be reduced as far as possible through further analysis, increased predictions and more numbers. Many organisations create a false sense of security by doing this, and set an incorrect course based on a potential future that no longer exists.

Scenarios as an instrument to cope with uncertainty

Scenarios can be used as a method of confronting uncertainty. Scenarios offer an alternative. By working with scenarios, you are able to create a platform for dialogue about an uncertain future. It is not the answers provided by the scenarios that are important, but rather the questions they raise. By using this methodology you can increase your ability to cope with uncertainty as a media organisation or a journalist.

The future of journalism may resemble one of the scenarios. Maybe the future contains elements from all the scenarios. What is clear - journalism in ten years will be fundamentally different to what it is today. The role that journalism plays, and the skills journalists will need in ten years, varies greatly with each scenario. However, there are many opportunities for those who are prepared and willing to openly investigate these potentially frightening trends. The question is: how can your organisation become stronger by making use of the uncertainties identified in this study?

Strategic discussions in groups

To help organisations and journalists, three toolkits have been developed to prepare for the uncertainties. These toolkits help you to hold a reasoned discussion about developments inside and outside the sector, and its significance for you or your role in journalism. There are several toolkits designed for media organisations, journalism training and freelance journalists.

Using the toolkit, you can organise a workshop to stimulate your organisation and encourage those within it to think about the issues addressed in the various scenarios. The scenarios are also suitable for measuring the sustainability of your current strategy. You will need to plan at least 2.5 hours free for each workshop. The kit includes a presentation with directions for how the workshop can be prepared and organised. The workshop will be more interesting if a diverse group participates. Therefore, try to work with a mix of ages, experience and expertise.